If your mortgage is set to adjust this year, the smart move may be to let it. Today’s conforming mortgages are adjusting lower than ever before — as low as 3 percent.  It may not be what you expected when you signed for your ARM several years ago.

The reason why ARMs are adjusting lower is because of how they’re made.

When conforming adjustable-rate mortgages adjust, they adjust according to a pre-determined formula. The formula is the sum of a constant and a variable.  The constant is usually 2.25 percent and the variable is a daily-changing interest rate called LIBOR.

The formula looks like this:

New Mortgage Rate = LIBOR + 2.250 percent

LIBOR is an acronym for London Interbank Offered Rate.  It’s an interest rate at which banks borrow money from each other. In Fall 2008, when Lehman Brothers fell and sparked a global banking fear, LIBOR spiked as the risk of inter-bank borrowing jumped.

Since then, however, LIBOR is down.

Normalcy is returning to banking and the timing couldn’t be better for Raymond homeowners with ARMs. 15 months ago, a homeowner’s ARM may have adjusted to 6 1/2 percent.  Today, that same ARM falls to just above 3.

As a strategy play, it might make sense to let your ARM adjust. Or, because fixed rates are still near 5 percent, converting that ARM to a long-term fixed-rate product might make sense, too.  The decision is a balance between how low do you want your payment, and how long might you live in your home.

The longer you stay, the more it might make sense to switch to fixed-rate, even though ARM rates are so low.

If you’ve got an adjusting ARM, talk to your loan officer about your choices. Once March ends and the Fed withdraws its mortgage market support, mortgage rates may rise and the fixed-rate option may be gone.

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The mortgage lending landscape changes a lot.  Rates and guidelines are in constant flux, and it creates preparedness challenges for buyers in Raymond that aren’t paying in cash.

The loan you get today won’t always be the loan you get tomorrow.

Because of how frequently bank rules are changing, it can be hard for laypersons to distinguish between mortgage fact and fiction of “what’s coming next”.

Recently, we saw this with respect to FHA home loans.

January 20, 2010, the FHA issued a press release with new lending guidelines.  Specifically, it announced 3 changes that will be effective starting April 5, 2010:

1. Upfront mortgage insurance premiums increase from 1.75% to 2.25%
2. Allowable seller concession reduced from 6% to 3%
3. FICO scores of 580 or lower are subject to a minimum 10% downpayment

But, also in its official statement, the FHA announced it would ask Congress for permission to raise monthly mortgage insurance premiums.  This is where the rumors started.

Nestled on page 348 of the Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 2011, in a section titled Special Topics, there is a 1-paragraph notation that details the FHA’s petition. 

1. Raise monthly premiums by roughly 0.30%, or $25 per $100,000 borrowed per month
2. Lower upfront mortgage insurance premiums by 1.25%, or $1,250 per $100,000 borrowed at closing

For now, the request is neither approved nor acknowledged by Congress. It’s merely a request. And in the event that Congress does approves it, that doesn’t mean that FHA has to stand by its initial projections.

Truth is, about the only thing we know about the future of FHA lending is that, come April 5, 2010, borrowing money is going to be tougher, and mortgage expensive. These are the facts as we know them today.

Homebuyers should plan accordingly.

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The economy’s improving but lending standards are not. Nationally, banks are making mortgage approvals harder to come by.

Underwriting guidelines are tightening.

The data comes from the Federal Reserve’s quarterly survey to its member banks.  The Fed asks senior bank loan officers around the country to report on “prime” residential mortgage guidelines over the most recent 3 months and whether they’ve tightened.

For the period October-December 2009:

• Roughly 1 in 4 banks said guidelines tightened
• Roughly 3 in 4 banks said guidelines were “basically unchanged”

Just 2 of 53 banks said its guidelines had loosened.

Combine the Fed’s survey with recent underwriting updates from the FHA and generally tougher standards for conventional loans and it’s clear that lenders are much more cautious about their loans than they were, say, in 2007.

Today’s Manchester home buyers and would-be refinancers face a bevy of new borrowing hurdles including:

• Higher minimum FICO scores
• Larger downpayment requirements for purchases
• Larger equity positions for refinances
• Lower debt-to-income ratios

So, if you’re on the fence about whether now is a good time to buy a home, or make that refi, consider acting sooner rather than later.  It doesn’t necessarily matter that mortgage rates are low, or that there’s an up-to-$8,000 home purchase tax credit for households that qualify.  With each passing quarter, fewer and fewer applicants are eligible to take advantage.

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The Pending Home Sales Index rose slightly in December, climbing 1 percent from November.

A Pending Home Sale is a home that is under contract to sell, but not yet sold. It’s a figure compiled by the National Association of Realtors® using sales data from over 100 regional listing services and more than 60 large brokerages around the country.

Because each pending sale is a true measure of sales activity, the Pending Home Sales Index is purported to be the most reliable forward-looking indicator for housing.

Recent data supports this hypothesis.

After Pending Home Sales plunged 16 percent in November, Existing Home Sales fell by 17 percent in December.  Based on the most recent Pending Sales Index, therefore, we can expect January’s closed sales to be similarly level.

For home buyers in Manchester , this is all a bit of good news. Home prices are based on the supply-and-demand balance that exists between buyers and sellers.  When buyers outnumber sellers, like they did through most of 2009, home supplies dip and, in fact, the national home inventory nearly halved during the 12 months ending November 2009.

With fewer homes for sale, multiple-offer situations were almost commonplace and home values rose as result.

Activity has since slowed, however, and fewer buyers are in today’s market. The supply-and-demand equation has shifted back some. In December, home supplies rose for the first time in 7 months and January will likely show the same.

The net result: Home buyers have more homes from which to choose and that can create negotiation leverage for better prices and better concessions.

With mortgage rates still low and a looming deadline on the homebuyer’s tax credit, market activity should be strong between now and April.   Take your time and bid right. And when you’re ready, be ready. The best deals likely won’t last.

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